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Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue was $15.585M, up sharply year-over-year from $1.108M, with contributions from return-to-service work on Spanish Super Scoopers ($5.1M) and FMS acquisition revenue ($1.4M) .
  • Diluted EPS was -$0.36 versus consensus -$0.23*, while revenue beat consensus ($15.585M vs $9.700M*); adjusted EBITDA was -$2.901M, reflecting normal seasonality (Q4/Q1 typically negative) .
  • 2025 guidance initiated: revenue $105–$111M and adjusted EBITDA $42–$48M; management expects continued improvement in cash from operations and year-round revenue mix .
  • Catalysts: lengthening wildfire season (earliest January scooper deployment), Alaska DOI 5-year $20.1M contract, Spanish scooper RTS progress, and growing state exclusive-use contracts .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “We saw a 48% increase in 2024 revenue… contributed to our record performance, reduced net loss and improved Adjusted EBITDA margins and positive cash flow from operations” .
    • Earliest scooper deployment in company history (January), confirming year-round activity; two scoopers deployed to Oklahoma and additional aircraft to Texas amid early 2025 fire activity .
    • Spanish scooper RTS on track; first aircraft certified, second expected within ~60 days; targeting European contracts for high-margin assets .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Q4 adjusted EBITDA negative (-$2.901M), consistent with seasonality and pass-through RTS mix; cost of revenues rose, including ~$4.8M RTS expenses and FMS-related maintenance .
    • EPS missed consensus (actual -$0.36 vs -$0.23*), driven by maintenance-heavy quarter and fixed cost structure .
    • Management highlighted inflationary pressures (wages, travel, parts) and noted not all cost-rationalization benefits were realized in 2024 .

Financial Results

Quarterly progression (oldest → newest):

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$13.014 $64.507 $15.585
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$0.33 $0.31 -$0.36
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$0.191 $46.974 -$2.901
Gross Income/Loss ($USD Millions)$3.147 $41.506 $0.184
Total Cost of Revenues ($USD Millions)$9.867 $23.001 $15.401
Net Income/(Loss) ($USD Millions)-$9.981 $27.346 -$12.845

Year-over-year comparison:

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1.108 $15.585
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$0.67 -$0.36
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)-$10.355 -$2.901
Net Income/(Loss) ($USD Millions)-$31.139 -$12.845

Estimates vs. actual (Q4 2024):

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$9.700*$15.585 +$5.885 (+60.7%)
Primary EPS ($USD)-$0.23*-$0.36 -$0.13 (worse)
# of Estimates (Revenue / EPS)1 / 1*——

Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Revenue composition (Q4 2024):

ComponentAmount ($USD Millions)
Return-to-service revenue (Spanish Scoopers)$5.100
FMS acquisition revenue$1.400
Core operations and other (derived)$9.085 (15.585 - 5.1 - 1.4)

KPIs (FY 2024):

KPIValue
Missions flown652
Gallons dropped8.8 million
Fires supported385
Cash from Operations$9.355M
Cash & Equivalents (year-end)$39.336M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2025n/a$105–$111M Initiated
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025n/a$42–$48M Initiated
Cash from OperationsFY 2025n/aExpect continued improvement Narrative only
RevenueFY 2024$70–$86M (Nov-2023 reiterated in Aug-2024) Raised to $90–$95M (Nov-2024) Raised/Narrowed
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2024$35–$51M (Nov-2023 reiterated in Aug-2024) Narrowed to $35–$40M (Nov-2024) Narrowed

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Seasonality/lengthening wildfire yearFleet fully deployed; NPL 5 reached; reiterated 2024 guidance Record utilization; aircraft operating into Nov; exclusive-use commitments Earliest scooper deployment in Jan; ongoing deployments to OK/TX; “fire season is no longer relevant” Lengthening; year-round activity increasing
State exclusive-use contractsInitial exclusive-use task orders and extensions (MMA) Multi-year, exclusive-use commitments broadening Targeting more state contracts; guaranteed standby revenue to reduce volatility Expanding commitments
Spanish Scoopers (RTS)On schedule On schedule; revenue recognized First certified; second ~60 days; sourcing EU contracts Execution progressing; commercialization next
FMS integration/DoD pipelineAcquisition closed; adds year-round revenue Contributed $1.6M; mission-critical engineering; pipeline building ~$3.0M FY contribution; active DoD bids; expected 2025 benefit Building pipeline; diversifying revenue
Technology/AI/sensors (Ignis)—Ignis app pilots; linking real-time sensor imagery to app Continuing pilots; planned subscriptions for 2025; sensor integration focus Product maturation and integration
Cost rationalization & inflationSG&A down YoY; reiterated Inflation pressures (wages, travel, parts) persist; SG&A down Expect 2025 cost benefits (exit programs; leverage); Q1 still negative EBITDA Ongoing; benefits accruing
Cash/liquidityCash & restricted cash $22.5M (Q2) Cash & restricted cash $42.6M (Q3) YE cash $39.3M; comfortable liquidity; JV funds Spanish upgrades Adequate; improving ops cash flow

Management Commentary

  • “We saw a 48% increase in 2024 revenue… contributed to our record performance, reduced net loss and improved Adjusted EBITDA margins and positive cash flow from operations.” – Sam Davis, CEO .
  • “With two scoopers being deployed to California in mid-January, we marked the earliest… deployment in company history… the concept of a fire season is no longer relevant.” – Sam Davis .
  • “We feel really good about where our cash is… just over $39 million… sufficient to fund working capital… Spanish scooper upgrades funded from the partnership.” – Eric Gerratt, CFO .
  • “Our initial 2025 guidance assumes revenue of approximately $105–$111 million… adjusted EBITDA… $42–$48 million… expect another year of positive cash from operating activities.” – John Founders, SVP .

Q&A Highlights

  • Spanish Scoopers timeline: first certified; second expected within ~60 days; two ready for 2025 season; contracts being negotiated primarily in Europe .
  • Liquidity and funding: YE cash ~$39M; comfortable funding for U.S. ops; Spanish upgrades funded by JV partner (MAB group) .
  • Appropriations/contracting: conservative 2025 guidance assumes funding at prior levels; increased state/federal interest post-California/Texas fires; any appropriation increases would be upside .
  • Fuel costs: conservative assumptions used; customer-borne fuel on scooper ops; potential upside if prices decline .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue beat: actual $15.585M vs consensus $9.700M*; strong Q4 contributions from RTS work and extended seasonal flying .
  • EPS miss: actual -$0.36 vs consensus -$0.23*; reflects maintenance-heavy quarter and fixed cost structure seasonality .
  • FY 2024 beat: actual revenue $98.613M vs consensus $92.800M*; FY EPS -$0.81* vs GAAP diluted -$0.81 per 10-K/8-K .
    Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue resilience and seasonality shift: year-round deployments and standby contracts are reducing Q4/Q1 volatility and should enhance visibility; watch contract wins in Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska .
  • 2025 setup: conservative guidance ($105–$111M revenue; $42–$48M adjusted EBITDA) leaves upside from appropriations, Spanish scooper commercialization, and DoD/FMS wins .
  • Mix matters: RTS revenues are largely pass-through; lower RTS in 2025 should expand adjusted EBITDA margin at similar revenue levels .
  • Liquidity and cash generation: YE cash $39.3M and positive FY cash from operations; JV funds Spanish upgrades—limits balance sheet strain .
  • Operational catalysts: exclusive-use contracts, early-season deployments, and multi-year state agreements can drive utilization and price; monitor legislative/regulatory progress .
  • Technology leverage: Ignis app and sensor integration create data-driven capabilities that can support multi-mission contracts and non-fire revenue diversification .
  • Trading implications: Q1 typically negative adjusted EBITDA; inflection remains Q3; near-term stock moves likely tied to contract announcements, Spanish scooper commercialization, and any guidance updates .

Appendix: Additional Data Points

  • Q4 cost of revenues included ~$4.8M RTS expenses (pass-through), contributing to margin pressure in the quarter .
  • Alaska DOI 5-year contract valued at $20.1M secured in January 2025 (Air Attack support) .
  • FY 2024 SG&A fell to $35.8M from $82.9M, driven by lower stock-based comp and warrants fair value decreases .
  • Cash & equivalents increased to $39.3M at YE from $33.3M at Q3 end due to strong Q3 performance cash receipts .